Morning Grain Comments, 04/07/2016

Thursday, April 7, 2016

April CBOT grain trade is chiefly a weather market and most U.S. crop producers can find a ray of hope somewhere in today’s fore-casts—the south and Delta are in the process of drying, with next week look-ing wetter for the southwestern Plains and drier for the bulk of the corn belt...

Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat today for May 10-20 shipment; this is their first tender with Bulgaria as an allowed origin, while they also changed mois-ture content specs to a maximum of 13%.

South Korean millers bought 45k tonnes of Australian milling wheat for Aug-Sept shipment overnight, with prices ranging from $224-233/tonne C&F.

Algeria tendered for a nominal 50k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat for June shipment yesterday, while Jordan tendered today for 100k tonnes.

The United Nations FAO reported their world food price index at 151.0 points in March, compared to a downward revision of 149.5 points in February.

China’s Ag Ministry said they would aim to cut corn planting in lesser-yielding northern and northeastern growing areas by over 8 million acres by 2020, stabilizing acreage in core regions, while boosting alfalfa ground, silage production, and soybean rotation in the north. They also said they would at-tempt to boost pork production, and “not resist” soybean imports...

Russian customs data showed cumulative Jan-Feb wheat exports at 3.6 mil-lion tonnes, up from 2.5 MMT in the first two months of 2015.

Private analysts Informa yesterday raised their 2015/16 Argentine crop esti-mates by half a million tonnes each, with corn up from 27.0 to 27.5 MMT, and soybeans up from 59.0 to 59.5 MMT this month; BRZ corn also went from 82.5 to 83.7 MMT in their World Crop Report. Informa did cut BRZ soybean output from an ambitious 101.3 MMT to an only slightly-less ambi-tious 100.5 MMT. Their U.S. crop report contained only an estimate of 2016 winter wheat production, at 1.377 billion bushels (versus 1.370 bln last year).


Today’s chart comes from the USDA as a reminder of where the U.S. corn crop is made annually—the darker green areas are major corn production areas with the lighter green marking minor corn production areas, while the yel-low numbers denote the percent each state contributes to national production. TX is the only “southern” state to pro-duce 1% or more, with AL, AR, GA, LA, MS, and TN com-bining to produce less than 4% of the U.S. crop since 2011.



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