Morning Grain Comments, 04/13/2016

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Can’t imagine many saw this kind of enthusiasm for soybeans coming—record open interest for the complex yesterday and massive volume again overnight, with the spot May coming within a penny of filling that key gap at 950 already. Just enough worries are starting to poke holes in what was a universally bearish S&D, heading into the May integration of ‘16/17 figures

Egypt’s GASC bought 175k tonnes of wheat yesterday for May 21-31, including 120k from Romania and 55k from Ukraine, at $193/tonne C&F.

China reported soybean imports of 6.1 million tonnes in March, a record for the month, up from 4.49 MMT last March and from 4.51 MMT in February.

FranceAgriMer cut France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat carryout from 6.0 MMT to 5.45 MMT, with exports outside the E.U. up from 11.0 to 11.5 MMT. They also cut corn and barley stocks, from 2.6 to 2.4 MMT & 1.6 to 1.1 MMT.

Indonesia’s Ag Ministry said they would limit the country’s corn imports to 1 MMT this year, in an effort to push for domestic usage; feed mills had planned on importing up to 3 MMT in calendar 2016, and they imported 2.95 MMT in 2015, but millers are now moving to wheat purchases as a result.

A Reuters survey indicated that India’s wheat imports are seen at 2.75 MMT in 2016/17 (July-June), up 5x from last year and the highest in a decade.

Brazil’s Trade Ministry will suspend a 10% tariff on corn imports from non- Mercosur origins (such as the U.S.); this comes after reported deals to import 500k tonnes of corn in the coming months from Argentina & Paraguay. Livestock groups see corn imports adding another 200k tonnes past that number.


Today’s charts show USDA corn and soybean carryout trends over recent years, heading through the April S&D report into the May edition where the new crop gets introduced. It’s interesting to note that our current 1862-millionbushel corn carryout (up 25 mbu from March) is just 35 mbu above where we were on the last crop in April 2015, and that went to 1851 mbu in May; however, we had rebuilt stocks by over 700 mbu from the prior crop at that point.



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