Morning Grain Comments, 04/15/2016

Friday, April 15, 2016

Overnight trade was fundamentally sensible at least, with the feed grains weighed by U.S. weather and beans hanging in near move highs on Chinese demand and ARG rains, with NOPA on the way this morning.

Iraq bought 50k tonnes of wheat from Australia at $251.50/tonne C&F.

UkrAgroConsult reported cumulative Ukraine wheat exports at 12.9 MMT so far in 2015/16 (July-June), up 34% from last season’s pace.

FranceAgriMer said French corn planting reached 4% complete this week, up from 1% the week prior but well behind the 17% five-year average pace, held up by heavy rain and cool temps. Winter wheat growth continued to run faster than normal, with condition of the wheat crop steady this week at 92% g/ex.

China agreed to scrap export subsidies on a range of products yesterday, maybe most importantly on steel, other metals, and textiles, but also including agriculture, in an effort to reduce trade friction with the United States.

Strategie Grains yesterday raised their 2016 E.U. soft wheat production estimate by just over a million tonnes, to 144.7 MMT, due to favorable weather.

The E.U. granted export licenses for 1.15 MMT of soft wheat, the largest weekly volume since July 1; cumulative exports are down 10% from LY.

March NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in a 156.25 million bushels this morning, up 7% from February’s 146.2 mbu but down from 162.8 mbu last February; trade estimates range from 152.9-158.6 million bushels.


Corn export sales rebounded to their highest level in four weeks at 44.7 million bushels, compared to 37.2 mbu last week and just 23.2 mbu on the same week last year. Cumulative sales continue to cut that deficit versus last year’s pace, now at 193 mbu behind LY, in comparison to a –335 mbu difference as recently as early Feb. Inspections & shipments are also now just 134-140 mbu behind LY, after the USDA remained at a –214 mbu entire-year decline on Tues.



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