Soybean Report, 04/21/2016

Thursday, April 21, 2016

HUGE volume day showed a lot of profit taking and liquidation of hedges, IMO. OI dropped over 33K from the previous day on beans, with May taking the brunt of the losses and July and Nov about equally dropping contracts in profit taking. Export sales do not reflect any major gains from SA weather problems in beans nor meal. The whole complex came in as expected for old crop, but a little sign of life was seen in NC bean sales which is a far cry from what we are used to. NC is still woefully anemic compared to the last few years at this same date. Interestingly, all commodities are on track now to meet the updated USDA export sales numbers at this week’s numbers. Stats Canada planting intentions are a bit surprising on canola, but that is probably more a reflection in the Chinese spec changes that most feel are unrealistic and thus do not want a product they can’t move at a good price. Field peas seem to be the benefactor of the drop in acreage. Spreads and basis indicate plenty of beans available for exporters and crushers. OC vs. NC is also indicating nearby demand is renewed, but even more obvious is that the money flow is into OC not the NC contracts. Back to the products and money flows, while beans went ballistic, products were highly active but well below the kind of activity beans saw. Oil had a drop in OI while meal added 2590 contracts. As long as cash is flowing into the current hot market, we will see positive green numbers on the screen. That said, the amount of liquidation needs to be watched as the weekend approaches and momentum wanes or could even be switching.

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