Morning Grain Comments, 04/26/2016

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

It was looking like a tame overnight session until Dec corn snuck out four cents this morning; we’ll be moving into a slow planting period in the next week but the pace remains ahead overall, and farmers will have zero problems rushing that corn seed into the ground starting again next week.

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2016/17 grain production at a 54.9 million tonnes, down from 57.9 MMT a year ago, with exports seen down nearly 10% next season to 32.4 MMT, compared to 35.8 MMT in 2015/16.

The European Union crop monitoring service today raised their 2016 soft wheat yield estimate from 5.96 tonnes per hectare (88.6 bushels per acre) to 6.11 t/ha (90.9 bpa); that remains nearly 3% below last year but still 5% above the five-year average yield. Barley and rapeseed yields were raised as well, while corn yields dropped from 7.12 t/ha (113.4 bpa) to 7.06 t/ha (112.5 bpa), still 12.5% above last year and nearly 3% better than the 5YA yield.

Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his 2015/16 Argentine soybean production estimate by another two million tonnes this week due to wet weather, to 57.0 MMT; he put his minimum estimate for the crop at 54.0 MMT this week. BRZ soy was cut as well, by half a million tonnes to 98.0 MMT, with BRZ corn down 3.0 MMT to 79.0 MMT and a lower bias going forward there also.

National corn planting came in right at expectations yesterday at 30% complete, up from 13% last week and 16% both last year and on average. Corn emergence was initially reported at 5%, versus 2% LY and the 4% five-year average. Soybean plantings came in at 3% in the first release, up from 2% LY and on average. Winter wheat ratings rose two points to 59% g/ex, compared to 42% both last year and on average, with heading at 26% this week, up from 12% LW, 25% LY, and the 24% 5YA. Spring wheat planting at 42% is up from 27% LW and the 28% 5YA, but behind 50% LY, with emergence of that crop at 8% this week, basically even with last year and the average pace.


National winter wheat ratings rose for the second straight week to 59% good/excellent, matching the high for the year that came in the initial spring-season ratings for the current crop. That’s by far the best rating in the last four years, and the third-highest in the last decade-plus. Number one producer Kansas saw a sharp four-point rise this week, now standing at 53% g/ex, more than doubling the comparable number last year and nearly 20 points above the 5YA figure



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