Soybean Report, 05/11/2016

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

The bulls are running again. After yesterday’s report it appears pent-up buying burst loose. While not exceptionally bullish for old crop, it did catch a nice updraft while NC took the bulk of the purchases. A lower carry out for this year and lower yield with increased demand led to a lower carryout for 16-17 than most thought. Meal demand does seem to be strong and Chinese demand has not waned. The latter is the most important to any scenario. Pork demand in China continues to flourish and domestic production is expected to increase, but imports are running high as well increasing the demand for meal around the world. The US, EU and Brazil are all exporting pork to China. In CME deliveries we had 102 beans reissued and still had 202 oil contracts floating around. OI in beans took a massive leap up adding over 30K total. This time though X added close to 13K while N, Q and U totaled right at 11K. Interestingly, we had nearly 7K of F thru N of 2017. Bulls are starting to spread out their bets and it appears some end users are diving in. Not only was Volume in beans exceptional at over 550K, but options thrived with over 220K traded. Expanded limits today due to the meal locking limit up. Any component of the complex kicks in an expansion of all for expanded limits to keep any from being unable to react appropriately. Friday is last trading day for May. We have exports tomorrow and last month’s NOPA crush on Friday to look forward to. Overnight was muted, so let’s see how many bullets the funds have let to use today after that explosive day yesterday.

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