Soybean Report, 05/20/2016

Friday, May 20, 2016

Yesterday’s late rally continues the bull run and has targets that a month ago seemed like a pipe dream. Meal has been the leader of late keeping beans from running off the tracks and dragging oil off its recent lows. Oil continues to be the anchor of the complex, but currently oil is dragging it along the bottom while powering ahead. The US$ had some early affect, but not enough to trigger sell stops that would have turned the ship around. Planting looks spotty for the next week, as rains return, but progress will be made. Also note that for beans we are a long way from last plant date and little alteration of yield by early planting is normally noted. Weather will still be the key issue when filling. Crush continues to be good as is the crush margin. Oil share has dropped below 30% in the nearby crush and could be looking at dropping below 29 in July today. Spreads have strengthened appreciably on this rally as it has all been front end loaded. Both N/Q and N/X broke the recent high of the trading range. Volume was good in products, but light in beans. OI was higher in beans, but lower in products. Look for some profit taking heading into the weekend, but so far strength appears likely to outmuscle the profiteers so positive numbers should reign

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