Soybean Report, 05/24/2016

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Momentum may not have swung the opposite way yet, but it is not on the bull’s side at the moment. Weather does look quite wet across the belt for the next week. With plantings at a good number yesterday, this should not be a big issue. Additional corn planting though will suffer and that could end up adding some bean acreage even if minimal in the big picture. SA is making good headway on harvest and should for a week or more according to forecasts. El Nino is over according to the latest reading. Still not a la Nina yet though. Since it looks like June or later for the la Nina, the bulls basing their reduced yield on late summer heat from a la Nina have to be worried. Timing is rapidly slipping out of reach. It will be interesting to see how much evening of positions and profit-taking occur in the next 4 days heading into the 3 day Memorial Weekend that signals the start of summer. Beans, meal and spreads with long legs in these two could see a massive exodus. The bean/corn ratio has headed south faster than the beans have now setting at only 2.54 this a.m. at the break. The biggest long term factor at the moment to fear for the bulls is US$ strength and prospects that it will stay that way moving back toward a possible triple digit value. Domestic meal demand is suffering at the hands of DDGs on this rally. How much extended crush margin is locked in could predicate crush demand in July forward to NC. Lighter volume in the complex yesterday led to minor changes in OI with only meal losing OI. Look for lower values to win today and how much lower centered on exiting by specs

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