Soybean Report, 06/30/2016

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Big report day, with exports and deliveries to deal with as well to end the month. USDA will issue stocks as of June 1 at 11 am today. Expectations are that if there is a surprise, it will be bearish, mainly due to ideas that the balance sheet is getting very tight and USDA may find some beans to offset that notion rather than the opposite. Acreage is another report that could throw cold water on the bull market. Expectations for 1 million added acres could morph into 2 or more and we still haven’t seen what appears to be additional double crop beans as moisture and an early wheat harvest has lent itself to that pattern. Overnight we saw little action, but did bounce a tad. Dead cat comes to mind. Moisture is no stranger to any significant area and forecasts are not yet locating a dome of death, so I find it difficult to get too excited yet. Basis is strong and feels like it could pop the lid off negative numbers soon. Most bids have moved to Q or X depending on the bidder’s preference. July OI was nearly halved yesterday in fear of deliveries and we saw 595 with a single issuer, while oil did its usual large first notice day amount of 1853 from just about every corner of the processing world. Exports were a yawner as old crop was in line with expectations, but NC actually was a good number so X should see some additional love for finally pulling itself out of the basement finally. Look for timid trade into the report and without a surprise more radar watching and forecast modeling surveillance to divine a trend change to move the market.

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