Rains continue to hit the driest parts of the Corn Belt, but we should still see dryness in the eastern area, and the 11-15 outlook is both warmer and dryer for all the Corn Belt. The big news this morning that has given flat price a good bump is Brazil’s CONAB coming out this morning and lowering their 15/16 corn production from 76.2MMT to 69.1MMT, with the majority of this drop coming from off their second crop. This just puts more pressure on the US crop, and volatility as now each weather event will bring more action. But as the current landscape sits with 94.1mln acres, 200mln tons excess and a yield 165+ it is tough to see another large rally off this CONAB report. With the drop in flat price basis has firmed up this week 5-10 cents as the country tries to patch up the bleeding, but producer movement from the bins has dried up and without another rally back above $4 probably won’t move the rest till NC. The CN has support at $3.46 and then resistance at $3.8775.
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