Soybean Report, 07/22/2016

Friday, July 22, 2016

Rain falling across the central region overnight is pressing futures lower. Forecasts have gotten wetter and the heat is not any worse and in some areas it is actually a bit lower, but what is 1—2 degrees once you clear 90? Q/X seems to have settled in at 20 cents for now. NC spreads backed up a bit the last couple of days, but still should be marching toward a carry. The last 4 year history of X/F shows early carry then inverting as we head into delivery as the front loaded export programs sucked all the beans they could into the pipeline and people were punished for attempting to hold them. So lock in carry while it is available in the next few weeks when/if you can. The caveat is how tight will this year be comparatively on the OC to NC switch and how early will this crop come out of the fields. Producers may be reluctant to sell across the scale as well due to lower prices, at least as it appears right now. Light vol day yesterday, but beans sow some liquidation. Oil on the other hand seems to have found some bottom picking as it added OI. The US$ again has moved above 97 on the index so no help from that corner. Look for a bad technical end to the week, unless they can muster a surprise rally.

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