Soybean Report, 08/15/2016

Monday, August 15, 2016

Night trade finishing higher as some talk of reduced Chinese bean crop is surfacing. US weather has been nearly ideal. Technical side is still bearish, but a good couple days of supply side rallying and we could see this change as we are already at the first resistance area of 998-1000. Products are bearish, but oil was already showing a bottoming trend. The lack of a short position though in beans will limit the early stages of the rally with less ammo, so to speak. NOPA crush out at 11 am today expected to be above the previous record by over 1 MB. Crop condition expected to hold steady to a minimal drop of 1%, 2% at most. Forward forecasts should continue to help this crop set pods and fill well. Oil may be the component of the complex that has the best long term value. Spreads showing a little strength on the rally. Good Friday volume for beans after the report and better for products. OI dropped in meal and beans, but gained in oil, none in quantity of note. Flooding in LA could cause some lower Mississippi shipping issues, but more importantly it will slow harvest of early beans in the south tributary to the gulf market, if they haven’t been lost altogether. Finally, as Q contracts finished trading we see 108 oil and 229 beans, with Zen-Noh at Hennepin joining the fray on deliveries. Look for better to higher values to reign today as long as crush doesn’t disappoint.

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