Soybean Report, 09/19/2016

Monday, September 19, 2016

It has been an evening of higher values. Volume has been decent as well. With a marginally lower US$ the move hinges more on the poor moisture situation in SA than in US struggles to harvest. We should continue to see that front moving ahead with the weather in front of us this week. Slight chances for rain mean we should see a lot more harvesting this week and the longer term forecasts do not show a lot of moisture to hinder progress. While the SA issue warrants and needs monitoring, we will see the early planting areas chances for rain pick up this coming week which will allow for more progress to be made. Additional moisture in the southern Brazilian areas will be needed and Argentina definitely could use moisture. In fact, if they don’t see it soon, some wheat acreage could get planted to beans if the crop fails and then moisture arrives. While the bounce seems worthy of note, the more interesting aspect will be to see if the rally drops export bookings. The drop fueled good scale down buying and we may see a lag in bookings as they hold out to see if the bottom is in fact in or we are just having the dead-cat bounce due to oversold techincals. US crushings would seem to indicate a step back from the trough. Look for better values early and probably a positive finish to start the week.

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