Exports are out with beans better than expected coming in almost 400 TMT above the high side estimate. Products though are disappointing. Values look to close better in the night session. That is interesting in that yesterday’s OI action mimicked today’s exports. Beans added OI while products dropped a decent amount of OI in lower volume trade. Spreads are stronger on the rally and limiting the progress made this week. Enough as this happens, basis continues to drop to NC levels across most of the corn belt and is hanging by a thread in western areas that have yet to make progress on harvest. Tomorrow will be the day of reckoning for many as stocks will reveal the actual size of last year’s crop, the demand in crush and exports by showing actual beans in elevators and bins on Sept. 1 2016. I expect to see a bit larger carry out than had been predicted. Even if it comes in lower, sell the rally as the reality of current yields will outweigh any perceived tightness from a lower stocks number entering this crop year. Look for better values to open and a good chance for them to hold into the close, as we see another 120K booked to China today.
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