Soybean Report, 10/25/2016

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Nice bounce yesterday is falling back a bit to earth, but still ahead of Friday’s close. US$ is not helping, but so far demand is keeping the price firm futures wise. Basis is not so good though and the spreads are weak due to that fact as we rapidly approach deliveries for Nov. We are now over 10 cents and 11-12 looks almost like a guarantee, except nothing in this business is guaranteed. The interesting part of the products to me is how oil carry has not vanished on the rally while meal has finally gone contango into July. In SA we are seeing progress in planting and now we will see if there are any added acres in Arg. as we move forward on plantings as the US and futures prices are raising the bar. US harvest is fast approaching the final stretch and with one or two minor delays will finish in good form with a strong final kick. Producer selling is good to keep the pipelines full as $9 beans seems to still be the magic number. Curious volume numbers in the complex as beans had a bin busting amount while meal was in a drought and oil was normal. Even with that quantity, OI dropped. Look for a mixed trade today as we see some vacillation without a clear path ahead due to the focus moving to SA and weather.

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