The market opened with a flurry of trading this week as we have over 60K of night volume in the front months and it may hit 70K it we aren’t careful before the break. The US$ broke early in the session, but has rebounded to unchanged or there about. The spread broke through 9 overnight as river basis has weakened on the rally of the past few days. By the close tomorrow any longs will be at risk of taking delivery. First notice day is Wed. Nov. 30. Expectations for deliveries has increased during the holiday week. The weather in SA has been very beneficial, to growth in Brazil and planting in Arg. and S. Brazil where they are finishing up. US export shipments should be a bit lower this week, but the frontend loaded campaign by China is being pushed to an end with NC offers in Brazil starting in 45 days and much cheaper. That is doubly true with the US$’s strength continuing to hold and expected to push higher yet with bond markets pointing to sustained strength. Interestingly, we saw a reduction in product OI on Friday while bean OI continued it march upward. Beans added 16.5K while meal dropped 3.2K and oil was down 7.8K on the day. Still, overall OI is high for the whole complex. Look for a better start, but we could see some profit taking as the dollar has strengthened back into positive territory after early day weakness.
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