Soybean Report, 12/08/2016

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Exports are again above expectations, but they were lower than what I would have issued. Still we are seeing the Chinese front end load this year’s imports from the US and it hasn’t really abated. The products were a bit disappointing IMO especially the oil for a world market that is on fire and very tight US sales are anemic. Meanwhile I SA, Brazil is 4-5 weeks from their first shipment barring wet weather pushing it back. More evidence of the Chinese surge is the 7.8 MMT imports in Nov. The most in almost 1 year. This month is expected to clear that by over 1.5 MMT as it should top 9 MMT. Brazilian estimates so far are all above 100 MMT and the most reliable are in a range to 101 to 102.5 MMT. A drop in Arg. crop will not be very noticeable without a complete disaster there with that kind of Brazilian number. Product deliveries were oil at 292 and meal at 3. Basis and spreads already look to me like they have slid into holiday mode and are just vacillating between the range boundaries if moving at all. Nice pop in OI for beans yesterday in decent volume. USDA also announces a sale of 136 TMT of beans yesterday to unknown “Chinese” destination. Today looks like a profit taking day ahead of the report.

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