Argentine planting is now around 50%, so we definitely are getting a bit ahead of ourselves on the effect of dry weather. It does set things up to be an issue, but damage isn’t really irreversible yet. Wetter weather is almost universally forecast by end of next week, which theoretically will allow planting progress just prior to a good rain to get the crop up and going. In the US, Chinese demand keeps hammering away on the front end. Shipments are still going out at breakneck speed as well. US domestic demand so far is high as well, even with competition from DDGs. Meanwhile, spreads on the nearby are weaker, as we have topped 11 and seem intent on making it to 12 or full carry in F/H. N/X seems stuck for the time being between 30-40 inverted. No real reason yet to move it. In just over 45 days the 17-18 crop year will begin their insurance pricing, the whole month of Feb. The current ratio of 2.64 in Beans/Corn is enough to keep acreage headed to beans. To get more, will take a push toward 2.7 or higher. That doesn’t look probable. Today should spend most of the time in positive territory, but if all the weather bulls pull back lower is definitely on the table.
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