Soybean Report, 12/22/2016

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Night trade was off as SA continues to get moisture, especially Argentina and prospects are good in the future to keep their crops on track for big yields. Meanwhile, the US exports were above expectations and they were pretty lofty ideas. The complex as a whole was only OK as meal was near the low end guess and oil close to mid-range. China continues to book and ship quickly. The question is when does the cliff come that those numbers fall off and hit rock bottom? By 60 days for sure, but 45 might be a better estimate. If it is 30, then look out. Spreads and basis will be doing some gymnastics. For the next 30 days we may need to see that N/X spread move to a less backwardated mode to keep acreage where it needs to be as the month of Feb. will determine early period insurance level and the worst case scenario for producers on prices. Keeping a 2.65 or better ration of beans to corn appears essential to me. Tomorrow is option expiration for Jan. futures derivatives and we should hold close to the $10 mark in beans. Holiday mode is in full force so look for light volume and continued liquidation of some longs in the complex Beans did drop over 14K again yesterday. Look for lower values to hold court today and any chance to sell unchanged or higher will need a new forecast or other outside factor to influence a rally.

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