Soybean Report, 02/16/2017

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Nice rally yesterday in light volume, but decent OI gains across the complex. Export sales disappointing in products and slightly positive in beans as it exceeded a very low bar as we are finally beginning to feel the SA effect of NC movement. NOPA crush numbers exceeded ideas by 1.5 MMT on crush, but also showed an excellent oil extraction and increased oil stocks that are a bit negative moving forward for oil. Spreads not moving much, but some life is seen along the river on basis. Thus, with river basis increasing, it would seem only a matter of time before the interior crushers have to follow suit and get off these historically low numbers. However, that will put additional downward pressure on their crush margins UNLESS they can somehow increase meal basis which is also running at low levels. Until DDGs are not competing, meaning a major turndown in ethanol production, that does not seem a likely scenario for meal basis increasing. We should again see both sides trade early and money flow will determine the direction the wind blows.

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