Friday’s strength rolled into Monday as values passed through the 100MA/200MA as the trade saw good fund buying as the talk now has been turned to weather. The funds bought an estimated net 14K contracts, even with sell off that happened as we closed the day. Export sales where a positive note to keep the pedal down, with 1.48MMT, up 70% from last year. The market is in a push and tug situation, with the lower acres we see traders looking for a weather rally here in spring/summer but with 16/17 carryout still 2.3+BLN, we would have to see a trend yield sub 170 to get any long lasting rally. The Chinese reserve story remains in the back ground as does the likelihood that we will see a political situation break out. But fresh, hard news is tough to come by, weather is the main focus as SA continues to have little issues, barring some analysts looking for more rain in ARG, and the market trying to play a guessing game where US final acres will shake out. Looking ahead to today, with a disappointing close yesterday and the overnight action it feels like we could be lower today with no real bullish factors grabbing headlines. CK has support at $3.64 then $3.61 with resistance at $3.6850 then $3.7175.
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