October's Global Macro report: The Fed Put, Junk Debt and Trade Wars: What to Watch to Get Back into Stocks

Thursday, October 18, 2018 - Friday, November 30, 2018

  1. We review three necessary indicators to get back into stocks.
  2. Treasuries need to rally, at least on large down days for the stock market i.e. the Fed Put must be verified.
  3. The junk bond market needs to digest the recent heavy ETF outflows without an increase in spreads.
  4. Trade wars must not escalate or analysts’ forecasts will have to be revised down.

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