Coffee Ends Higher
Arabica futures closed higher today as the recent fund liquidation appears to be coming to an end. The most active contract for July delivery settled 390 points higher or +1.97% at 201.45 cents a pound. The Robusta market again provided support to the NY “C”. Despite some rains in Vietnam, much more rains are required to ease the hot and dry conditions affecting the Central Highlands. The technical performance contributed to add support to the Arabica. The proximity to an important support area and oversold values are discouraging further speculative selling. The Real was weaker today after the Central Bank cut the SELIC rate by 25 basis points yesterday and reduced the pace for further cuts. 57 delivery notices were posted for the May contract, bringing the total to 1,079. The harvesting of Brazil’s crop remains on the focus of the market’s participants. According with CEPEA some collection of coffee has begun in isolated areas and the more widespread field activities will begin next month. In the coming weeks, the USDA will continue to publish their attaché coffee reports, which will be the first forecasts for the 2024-2025 crop. In June, both CoffeeNetwork and the USDA will reveal their estimates for global supply and demand. The commodity complex was mostly higher today. Cert stocks increased 11,943 bags to 699,616 bags. Pending grading decreased 13,498 bags to a total of 106,439 bags. Todays grading summary: 14,458 total bags graded, 11,943 passed and 2,515 failed.
Robusta Jul24 contract settled at $3439 +25 with a 3499/3419 range. Market continues to recover some of its recent losses. The spec long liquidation has for the moment paused allowing flat price to recover gradually. Commercial activity remains somewhat muted with the main participants being small roaster buying and new shorts beginning to take some profit. Fundamentally the market still sits on the bullish side of the ledger but the recent softening of diffs in viet has cooled this narrative. Structure continues to flat line with a standard 72/80 range on the day on 2k lots. Only one notable option trade Robusta Buy Jul24 3100 calls - Sell Jul24 3100 puts - Sell Δ100 Jul24 3450 traded 1450x @ 349.
At the time of writing
USDBRL 5.1440 +1.05%
USDCOP 3890.7 -0.19%
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-11-3509-5426
ICE Arabica
Volume:
34,008
ICE Robusta
Volume:
14,876
Brazil Arabica
Volume:
462
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