Coffee Continues Steady Progress
Arabica coffee futures closed with strong gains Wednesday. The firm Robusta market remains as a major factor adding the bullish sentiment. Commercial buying ahead of the first notice day for the May position was significant today. With only two days left commercial price fixing has boosted the market. The contract with the most activity for July delivery ended with gains of 1,120 points or 4.9 % at 240.35 cents a pound. The volume reached 74,220 lots including 22,957 switches. The technical strength attracted speculators and funds buying too as they perceive a situation that could be parallel to that of the cocoa market, which has risen more than 150% this year. In the technical part, previous patterns on the charts, suggest the next objective against the 243/245 area, highs of Sep 2022, and later against 250/260. The market seems to continue disconnected from macro factors such as the weakness of the Brazilian real and the Colombian peso. Certified stocks rose 7,375 bags to 630,856 bags. Those pending certification increased by 1,035 bags for a total of 57,848.
Robusta Jul24 contract settled at $4195 +218 with a 4206/3952 range. A new absolute high basis 2nd month, taking out the previous $4,140 high in Sep 1994 (5 MT contract). We are currently facing a financial squeeze on the commercial sector with runaway flat price and a stagnant physical market. This leaves participants unable to get hold of product, and what is available is extremely expensive. Rumours of a very large commercial player buying in the physical space today caused prices to rally (in very large quantities). Shorts continue to cover with the total absence of a natural seller meaning we just trade through vacuums of liquidity. Volumes reached nearly 43k lots total. Robusta Jul24 5000 call traded 1000x @ 65, Robusta Jul24 3800 puts vs 4094Δ30 traded 1250x @ 130.
At the time of writing
USDBRL 5.2348 -0.15%
USDCOP 3892.9 -0.03%
Miami London Brazil
305-925-4847 +44-203-580-6099 +55-11-3509-5426
ICE Arabica
Volume:
74,220
ICE Robusta
Volume:
32,442
Brazil Arabica
Volume:
1,194
Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage
Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage
Arabica Switches
Robusta Switches
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